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Showing 2 results for Hassan Zadeh
Application of Phase Distributions in the Aging Process of Patients with Skin Cancer
Raoufeh Asghari, Amin Hassan Zadeh,
Volume 1, Issue 3 (12-2018)
Abstract
Introduction: Skin cancer is one of the most common types of cancers in the United States of America and can be prevented in most cases. Skin cancer significantly affects the quality of life of people and can cause disorder or even death. A review of the aging process of cancer patients, its modeling with physiological age and comparison with normal people is conducted in this paper by using phase-type distributions.
Methods: In this model, it is assumed that the length of any physiological age follows an exponential distribution in a Markov chain environment. In the continuous-time Markov chain, a state is assumed to represent death, and n_x transient states, where x is the patient's age at the time of diagnosis of cancer. Each transient state represents a physiological age and aging is a process of change from a physiological age to the next physiological age to reach the end of the process. There is also an absorbing state that the transition from any state to the absorbing state can take place. In this study, using data of skin cancer patients in the United States, the unknown parameters associated with the aging process were estimated.
Results: The study was conducted on patients with melanoma-related cancer in the United States during the years 1973 to 2014, with aged 60-65 years old. The registered number of melanoma cases was 1,882, of which 1,251 were male (66.5%) and 631 were female (33.5%). A table of parameters for estimating survival probability and related charts for the whole population in the age group and gender is presented.
Conclusions: The fitting results of data modeling are very satisfying. The physiological age parameters were estimated in general that could be useful in estimating the distribution of the phase-type parameters and to calculate the function and the moments. And also the effect of gender on the survival rate of patients was determined which indicates that the survival of males is higher than that of women. On the other hand, the life expectancy of cancer patients has been compared with the entire population of the United States, which was less it was expected.

Mortality Rates Estimation of Active insured members of Social Insurance Fund of Farmers, Villagers and Tribes in 2016
Amin Hassan Zadeh, Diba Daraee,
Volume 3, Issue 1 (4-2020)
Abstract

Introduction: Demographic rates, such as mortality rates, have an important role in the calculations and policymaking of insurance (social and commercial) and funds. Since TD (88-90) Mortality Table, which is prescribed by the Central Insurance of Iran and overestimates the mortality rates,  is still used in actuarial calculations in Iran, it is important and useful to construct a life table that provides an accurate estimation of the mortality of the Iranian population. Due to the importance of this issue, the purpose of this paper is to estimate the mortality rates of insured of the Social Funds of Farmers, Villagers and Tribes in 2016, which actually is a sub-population of 1.5 million people in Iran.
Methods: In this paper in order to minimize the effect of data’s few-counting of death, the target population has been limited to active insured members in the year 2016. For each age x, the raw mortality rate is obtained by dividing the number of x-year dead by the x-year exposures. The smoothing of the raw rates is done by the Makeham model with A = 0.0001, B = 0.0001521 and c = 1.073 parameters which have been estimated by the least-squares error method.
Results: The mortality rates for active insured male members of the fund for ages between 30 and 80 have been estimated. The resulting rates for ages between 30 and 71 are higher than rates which obtained by insured people of the Social Security Organization and lower than rates of TD (88-90). The fund rates in comparison with the rates presented by the United Nations, are higher up to age 60 and lower at age 60 up to age 71.
Conclusionس: The results and comparisons show that the estimated rates for the fund are largely reasonable and reliable. According to the comparisons, it can also be said that the estimated rates for the fund and the rates which were presented by the United Nations are the closest among the rates presented by the four sources listed.


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