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Joudaki H, Hemmat-Boland B, Mirshafiei N S. Predicting Outpatient Contacts of Social Security Insured until 2025. Iran J Health Insur 2021; 4 (1) :48-57
URL: http://journal.ihio.gov.ir/article-1-178-en.html

Introduction: The aim of this study is to predict the per capita outpatient contacts of social security insured from 2020 to 2025.
Methods: To perform the prediction, a five-step method including determining the purpose of the prediction, determining the time horizon, selecting the prediction model, performing the prediction and determining its accuracy was used.
Results: The number of outpatient contacts of social security insured at the end of 2025 will be equal to 553,124,688. Of these, 157,843,600 will be referred to social security medical centers (28.5%) and 395,281,088 will be referred to public and private centers (71.5%).
In 2019, each insured person had an average of 10.92 outpatient contacts. Of this amount, 3.24 referred to the medical centers of the Social Security Organization and 7.68 referred to public and private centers of the contracting party. It is predicted that by the end of 2025, each insured person will have 11 outpatient contacts, of which 3.14 contacts will be to social security medical centers and 7.86 will be to public and private medical centers.
Conclusion: The per capita number of outpatient contacts of social security insured will increase by 0.08 by 2025. That is, for every 100 people, there will be 8 more contacts than in 2019. Despite the slight increase in per capita outpatient contacts until 2025, per capita contacts in 2025 will still be 0.74 units lower than the maximum per capita contacts in 2009. The estimated per capita is lower than the actual per capita due to the non-registration of claims outside the insurance coverage.